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หากย้อนไปในอดีตเมื่อปี 40 ฟองสบู่อสังหาฯ แตกดังโพละสร้างความเจ็บปวดเสียหายให้กับธุรกิจ จากการซื้อกักตุนเก็งกำไร จนเกิดโอเวอร์ซัพพลายจากโครงการอสังหาฯ เปิดตัวขึ้นมามากมายจนล้นตลาด และดูคล้ายๆ ปัจจุบัน โดยเฉพาะคอนโดฯห้องชุด ผุดขึ้นมาราวดอกเห็ด
“ทีมเจาะประเด็นไทยรัฐออนไลน์” พูดคุยกับ “ดร.โสภณ พรโชคชัย” ประธานกรรมการบริหาร ศูนย์ข้อมูลวิจัยและประเมินค่าอสังหาริมทรัพย์ไทย บจก.เอเจนซี่ ฟอร์ เรียลเอสเตท แอฟแฟร์ส ระบุสถานการณ์อสังหาริมทรัพย์ครึ่งปีหลัง 2562 จะมีสินค้าที่อยู่อาศัยเหลือมาจากครึ่งแรกของปี จำนวน 204,585 หน่วย รวมมูลค่า 830,289 ล้านบาท ทั้งนี้ 43.4% เป็นห้องชุดพักอาศัย รองลงมาเป็นทาวน์เฮาส์ 30.1% บ้านเดี่ยวอีก 16.9% นอกนั้นเป็นอื่นๆ
ทั้งนี้ 29% ของหน่วยที่อยู่อาศัยที่เหลือ ขายในราคา 2-3 ล้านบาท โดยนับเป็นกลุ่มใหญ่ที่สุด อาจกล่าวได้ว่าทาวน์เฮาส์ราคา 2-3 ล้านบาท มีเหลืออยู่มากที่สุด คือ 28,988 หน่วย หรือ 14.2% ของทั้งหมด รองลงมาเป็นห้องชุดราคา 2-3 ล้านเช่นกัน จำนวน 24,680 หน่วย (12.1%) ส่วนบ้านเดี่ยวที่มีเหลือขายมากที่สุดก็คือในระดับราคา 5-10 ล้านบาท จำนวน 14,114 หน่วย หรือ 6.9% ของสินค้าที่เหลือทั้งหมด
ส่วนฟองสบู่จะแตกหรือไม่นั้น ยืนยันฟองสบู่ไม่แตก เพราะไม่มีฟองสบู่ ฟองสบู่กำลังแฟบ เนื่องจากด้านอุปทานใหม่จะมีจำนวนทั้งปีประมาณ 110,994 หน่วย มูลค่ารวม 439,535 ล้านบาท จำนวนโครงการเพิ่มขึ้น (พัฒนาขนาดโครงการเล็กลง) จำนวนหน่วยขาย มูลค่าโครงการลดลง ราคาขายเฉลี่ยต่อหน่วยอาจจะลดลงเล็กน้อย ประมาณการหน่วยขายเปิดใหม่ทั้งปี ถ้าเปิดขายใกล้เคียงครึ่งปีแรก จะลดลงประมาณ -11.3% และมูลค่าลดลงประมาณ -22.3% จากปี 2561 อุปทานคงเหลือทั้งตลาดมีแนวโน้มปรับตัวลดลง ประมาณ (7-10%) เนื่องจากมีจำนวนอุปทานเปิดใหม่เข้าสู่ตลาดน้อยลง อุปทานเหลือสะสมจึงลดลงตาม
อย่างไรก็ตาม นักเก็งกำไรจะประสบปัญหามาก เพราะมาตรการกำกับดูแลสินเชื่อที่อยู่อาศัย หรือ LTV (Loan to Value) ของธนาคารแห่งปรเทศไทย ทำให้ไม่สามารถโอนได้ หรือบางส่วนอาจทิ้งการผ่อนชำระกับสถาบันการเงิน ทำให้สถาบันการเงินสั่นคลอนได้ระดับหนึ่ง
“สรุปแล้ว ผู้ประกอบการคงไม่เจ๊ง หากไม่เปิดตัวโครงการมากมาย สถาบันการเงินอาจประสบปัญหาบางส่วนจากนักเก็งกำไร ส่วนนักเก็งกำไร จะเจ๊งในปี 2562 นี้”
ขณะที่ต่างชาติมาซื้อห้องชุดในไทยลดลงโดยเฉพาะจีน ในช่วงครึ่งแรกของปี 2562 มีห้องชุดขายได้แล้วประมาณ 26,680 หน่วย โดยต่างชาติซื้อ 3,659 หน่วย หรือประมาณ 14% ของหน่วยขายทั้งหมด ในแง่มูลค่าพบว่าในช่วงครึ่งแรกของปี 2562 มีห้องชุดขายได้แล้วประมาณ 93,648 ล้านบาท โดยต่างชาติซื้อ 17,783 ล้านบาท หรือประมาณ 19% ของมูลค่าของหน่วยขายทั้งหมด แต่เดิมต่างชาติมีการซื้อมากกว่านี้ แต่เชื่อว่าสงครามการค้าสหรัฐฯ-จีน อาจไม่ได้จบด้วยผลกระทบต่อไทยมากนัก
อย่างไรก็ตามเพื่อป้องกันการเกิดฟองสบู่แตก รัฐบาลควรคุ้มครองเงินดาวน์ของคู่สัญญา เพื่อเร่งสร้างความมั่นคงให้กับระบบตลาดที่อยู่อาศัย โดยรัฐบาลควรมีนโยบายให้บริษัทพัฒนาที่ดินทั้งหลายและผู้บริโภคปฏิบัติตามพระราชบัญญัติการดูแลผลประโยชน์ของคู่สัญญา พ.ศ.2551 ที่กำหนดการคุ้มครองเงินดาวน์ของผู้บริโภคโดยพร้อมเพรียงกัน โดยจากการสำรวจของศูนย์ข้อมูลวิจัยและประเมินค่าอสังหาริมทรัพย์ไทย บจก.เอเจนซี่ ฟอร์ เรียลเอสเตท แอฟแฟร์ส พบว่ากลางปี 2562 มีบ้านที่ยังรอผู้ซื้ออยู่ประมาณ 204,585 หน่วย โดยในจำนวนนี้มีหน่วยที่แล้วเสร็จ 100% เพียงส่วนน้อยมาก ดังนั้นจึงมีความเปราะบางในระบบซื้อขายที่อยู่อาศัยอยู่พอสมควร
“หากเกิดปัญหาวิกฤติอสังหาริมทรัพย์ขึ้น อาจส่งผลกระทบทั้งต่อผู้ซื้อบ้าน ผู้ประกอบการและสถาบันการเงินเช่นในอดีตและในปัจจุบัน โดยที่พระราชบัญญัตินี้เป็นแบบสมัครใจ จึงแทบไม่มีการปฏิบัติตามพระราชบัญญัติ ดังนั้นรัฐบาลจึงควรมีนโยบายขอให้ทุกฝ่ายปฏิบัติตามพระราชบัญญัตินี้ แทนที่จะเป็นแบบสมัครใจเช่นในปัจจุบัน ผลดีที่จะตามมาก็คือผู้บริโภคเกิดความมั่นใจในการคุ้มครองของตลาดอสังหาริมทรัพย์และมาซื้ออสังหาริมทรัพย์มากขึ้น เป็นการกระตุ้นอสังหาริมทรัพย์เพื่อประโยชน์ต่อทุกฝ่ายทางหนึ่ง ที่ผ่านมาเห็นมีการพยายามแก้กฎหมายนี้อยู่นาน แต่ก็อืดเป็นเรือเกลือ ไม่ได้นึกถึงประโยชน์ของประชาชนและผู้ประกอบการที่จะให้ได้รับการยอมรับจากตลาดเท่าที่ควร”
นอกจากนี้ควรมีมาตรการในการลดดอกเบี้ยเงินกู้ เพราะทุกวันนี้สถาบันการเงินได้ส่วนต่างดอกเบี้ยสูงถึงประมาณ 5% เป็นการค้ากำไรเกินควร ควรลดดอกเบี้ยเงินกู้ลง โดยอาจให้สถาบันการเงินต่างประเทศมาแข่งขันมากขึ้น จะทำให้ตลาดเป็นของผู้บริโภคมากขึ้น เศรษฐกิจไทยจะดีขึ้น ตลาดอสังหาริมทรัพย์ก็จะมั่นคงขึ้น.
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